JoSAA 2026

JoSAA 2026 Round 2 Cutoff Analysis

Round 2 vs Round 1 Closing Ranks · Branch Patterns · NIT vs IIT Trends · Reading Your R3–R5 Chances

Why Closing Ranks Change Between Rounds

JoSAA closing ranks are not fixed — they evolve across rounds because the available seat pool changes each round. Understanding why ranks drop (or don't drop) is key to interpreting your upgrade prospects:

Round 2

Largest drop round

Most seat movement happens here — biggest Float pool processes

5–15%

Typical Round 1→2 drop

For programs with significant Float candidates (newer IITs, mid NITs)

~0–2%

Premium program drop

IIT Bombay CSE, NIT Trichy CSE — almost no movement across all rounds

The Float Cascade mechanism

When a Round 1 Float candidate is upgraded in Round 2, they release their Round 1 seat. This seat is now available for the next-best-ranked unmatched candidate. The cascade means that each upgrade 'unlocks' a seat one step down the rank ladder — creating a chain of allotments down to candidates who previously had no seat.

Why Round 2 has the biggest drop

Round 2 processes the largest Float pool — nearly all Round 1 allottees who chose Float. As rounds progress and more candidates Freeze (satisfied with upgrades), the Float pool shrinks, and the vacancy cascade slows. Round 3 drops less than Round 2; Round 4 drops less than Round 3.

Stable programs: why some ranks barely move

Programs where candidates almost never Float (IIT Bombay CSE, NIT Trichy CSE) create almost zero vacancies in any subsequent round. Their Round 1 closing rank is essentially their Final closing rank. Candidates targeting these programs need to be competitive in Round 1 itself.

Branch and Institute Cutoff Trends: Round 1 to Final

Based on JoSAA 2023–2025 data, here is how different program tiers compare across rounds:

Virtually No Drop (Round 1 ≈ Final Round)

Rank drop: 0–2%

Examples: IIT Bombay CSE, IIT Delhi CSE, IIT Madras CSE, NIT Trichy CSE (OS), NIT Surathkal CSE (OS)

Premium programs — candidates holding these seats almost universally Freeze. No vacancy cascade possible.

Small Drop (Round 1 to Final)

Rank drop: 3–8%

Examples: NIT Trichy ECE/Mech, NIT Warangal CSE (OS), IIIT Hyderabad CSE, IIT Roorkee CSE/ECE

High demand programs with some Float candidates, but mostly Frozen. Limited vacancy creation across rounds.

Moderate Drop (Round 1 to Final)

Rank drop: 8–18%

Examples: Mid-tier NIT CSE (OS) — Rourkela, Durgapur, Silchar. IIT Guwahati non-CSE branches. IIIT Allahabad.

Mixed Float pool. Some candidates at these institutes Float toward top NITs or older IITs, creating seats for next-rank candidates.

Large Drop (Round 1 to Final)

Rank drop: 15–30%

Examples: Newer IITs (Goa, Jodhpur, Tirupati, Dharwad, Palakkad) across branches. NIT non-CSE branches (Civil, Metallurgy, Ceramic).

High Float rate — many candidates here seek older IIT upgrades. Significant vacancy cascade across Rounds 2–5.

Very Large Drop (Round 1 to Final)

Rank drop: 25–40%+

Examples: GFTI programs, newest NITs (Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Arunachal), IIT Bhilai/Goa/Jammu CSE

Lowest demand tier — many candidates accept these only as last resorts and Float aggressively, creating cascading vacancies.

All percentages are approximate based on JoSAA 2023–2025 historical data. Actual 2026 figures will vary.

NIT vs IIT Cutoff Patterns Compared

Factor	Top NITs (Trichy, Warangal, Surathkal)	Newer IITs (Goa, Jodhpur, etc.)
Round 1→Round 2 cutoff drop	0–5% for CSE; 5–12% for non-CSE	8–20% across most branches
Float rate of allottees	Very low — candidates freeze to secure the seat	High — many float toward older IITs
By Round 5 relaxation (cumulative)	CSE: ~2%; Civil/Mech/Chem: ~10–15%	CSE: ~12–18%; Other: ~20–35%
Strategy for targeting	Need R1-competitive rank; rounds won't bail you out much	Worth floating — meaningful movement happens in R2–R5

How to Use Round 2 Closing Ranks to Plan Your R3–R5 Strategy

After Round 2 closing ranks are published on josaa.nic.in, follow this framework to decide your path:

Step 1

Download the Round 2 opening-closing rank PDF

josaa.nic.in publishes the full opening and closing rank data for every program after each round. Download it and note the Round 2 closing rank for your top 10 locked choices.

Step 2

Compare Round 1 vs Round 2 closing ranks

Calculate the rank change for your target programs. A large drop from Round 1 to Round 2 indicates these programs see movement — more drops are likely in Rounds 3–5. A tiny or zero drop means the program is stable and unlikely to relax further.

Step 3

Calculate your rank gap to each target

Subtract the Round 2 closing rank from your JEE rank. If the gap is small (within 10–15% of the closing rank), you are within meaningful upgrade territory. If the gap is large (20%+), the program is out of reach for Rounds 3–5.

Step 4

Project Round 3–5 drops using historical data

Programs that dropped 10% from Round 1 to Round 2 typically drop another 5–8% from Round 2 to the final round. Using this estimate, project whether remaining drops could bring the closing rank within your range. If yes — Float. If no — Freeze.

Key Takeaway: Round 2 Data Tells You the Most

Of all the round-wise data published, Round 2 closing ranks are the most predictive of the final round outcome — because Round 2 processes the largest Float pool and sees the most movement. If your target program did not move in Round 2, it is unlikely to move much in Rounds 3–5 either. Conversely, if it dropped significantly in Round 2, more drops are likely — and Floating is the right strategic call.

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JoSAA 2026 Round 2 Cutoff Analysis – FAQs

Common questions about how JoSAA Round 2 closing ranks compare to Round 1

Do Round 2 cutoffs always drop compared to Round 1?

Generally yes, for most programs — but not uniformly. Highly competitive programs like IIT Bombay CSE, IIT Delhi CSE, and NIT Trichy CSE see almost zero drop between Round 1 and the final round (less than 2%). In contrast, programs at newer IITs, mid-tier NITs in less-competitive branches (Civil, Metallurgy, Chemical, Architecture) can see closing rank drops of 15–30% from Round 1 to Round 5. Round 2 typically sees the largest drop among all subsequent rounds.

How do I use Round 2 closing ranks to estimate my Round 3–5 upgrade chances?

Compare your JEE rank against the Round 2 closing rank for your target program. If your rank is within 5% of the Round 2 closing rank, there is a good chance (15–30%) of an upgrade in Rounds 3–5. If you are 5–15% away, chances are moderate (5–15%). If you are more than 15–20% away from the Round 2 closing rank, the probability of upgrade in remaining rounds drops below 5% for most programs.

Which types of programs see the biggest cutoff relaxation from Round 1 to Round 5?

Programs with the highest cutoff drops across rounds are typically: (1) All branches at newer IITs (Goa, Jodhpur, Tirupati, Dharwad, Palakkad, Bhilai, Jammu) — candidates placed there often Float hoping for older IITs, creating vacancies. (2) Non-CSE branches at mid-tier NITs (Civil, Metallurgy, Ceramic, Chemical, Architecture). (3) Most GFTI programs. These can see 20–35% rank relaxation from Round 1 to the final round.

NIT Trichy CSE didn't drop in Round 2. Why?

NIT Trichy CSE (and programs like NIT Surathkal CSE, NIT Warangal CSE OS) attract candidates who immediately Freeze upon allotment. Very few candidates holding NIT Trichy CSE choose to Float — they don't want to risk losing the seat (even though Float is technically zero-risk, many Freeze out of caution). Since almost no one Floats away from NIT Trichy CSE, no vacancies are created, and the closing rank stays essentially identical across all rounds.

Is it worth waiting for Round 3 if Round 2 closing ranks didn't reach my target?

Depends on the gap. Rounds 3 and 4 typically see continued but smaller drops — roughly 40–60% of the total Round 1-to-Final drop happens after Round 2. If your target dropped from 3,000 to 2,800 in Round 2 and you have a rank of 2,600, Rounds 3–5 may well get there. But if your target is at 1,000 and your rank is 2,000, the remaining movement will not bridge that gap regardless of rounds remaining.

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Cutoff Drop Summary

IIT Bombay CSE: ~0–1% drop

NIT Trichy CSE: ~0–2% drop

Mid NIT non-CSE: ~8–15% drop

Newer IIT branches: ~15–25% drop

GFTI programs: ~20–40% drop

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Disclaimer

All cutoff drop percentages are estimates based on JoSAA 2023–2025 data. Actual 2026 figures will vary. Verify on josaa.nic.in.